Harry Kane

Forget About Him*

Posted by Andy on June 27, 2017

We do the impossible and argue the case why Harry Kane should not be part of your Game Week 1 squad.

*TLDR; keep him for the end, not the start.

So you’re a Fantasy Football player and its time to pick your squad for the new season – whats the first thing you do? well naturally you check last seasons stats and you find the striker with the highest points total and select that guy instantly….

But hold on a minute we think theirs a bit more to it then that.

We understand what were asking you to do is the equivalent of not chatting up the easy looking drunk big chested bird at the bar with the “uncle Jimmy “ tattoo on her neck but hear us out and let us try the impossible.

Let's look at the facts first of all last year Kane was a unquestionable points machine, spearheading a potent Spurs attack he was a consistent points scorer over the course of the season and at one point was basically shitting Hat-tricks and bonus points. If you passed up on Harry Kane all season it was probably more annoying then that stupid face of his and seeming lack of ability to breathe through his nose at any point of a game.

Now lets look at Kane’s season total stats from 16/17 to see how impressive they are :

He totalled 2531 Minutes pitch time over 30 appearances - creating 41 chances and scoring 29 goals with a 65% shot accuracy. His goal breakdown is as follows : Home – 16 Appearances 17 Goals - Away- 14 Appearances 12 Goals. Along with this impressive goal return 'arry also managed 7 assists.

One major consideration point when selecting your initial squad is not only a players total points for the previous season but its also how many points that player delivered per million.

The following totals are from the end value and provide a snap shot of their average points per million of their value.

Player Season Apps. Total Points End Value Points Per Million Points Per Appearance

You should bare in mind Kane’s average will be down due to his reduced amount of fixtures played after his absence through injury.

This shows there is far more to consider then points total. Although Kane scored more points then Josh King, King was a lot cheaper so you could argue in a team that requires a budget King is better value for money being that you could almost get 2 Kings for the Price of one Kane (sounds like some dodgy offer of the week in Asda.)

One of the common assertions we hear thrown out about Kane is that he is a slow starter at the beginning of the season , so lets take a look at the following tables – they compare his first 5 games in 15/16 with his last 5 games and similarly for the 16/17 season and see if this is the reality.

First 5 EPL Fixtures 16/17

FixtureGoalsAssistsBonus PointsPoints Per Game
Everton Away---2
Palace Home-1-5
Stoke Away1--6
Sunderland Home1-39
Total over 5 Games2/51/53/54.8 ( Average Per Game )

Last 5 EPL Fixtures 16/17

FixtureGoalsAssistsBonus PointsPoints Per Game
Arsenal Home1--5
West Ham Away---2
Man Utd Home1-17
Leicester Away41324
Hull Away3-317
Total over 5 Games9/51/57/511 ( Average Per Game )

First 5 EPL Fixtures 15/16

FixtureGoalsAssistsBonus PointsPoints Per Game
Man Utd Away-- 2
Stoke Home-- 2
Leicester Away-- 2
Everton Home-- 2
Sunderland Away-- 2
Total over 5 Games0/50/5 2 ( Average Per Game )

Last 5 EPL Fixtures 15/16

FixtureGoalsAssistsBonus PointsPoints Per Game
Stoke Away2- 12
West Brom Home-- 2
Chelsea Away1- 7
Southampton Home-- 2
Newcastle Away-  2
Total over 5 Games3/50/5 5 ( bonus points not included )

As illustrated above *Kane finishes a season stronger then he starts one*.

So how does this information demonstrate not Initially selecting Kane is an option worth exploring.

Well the obvious advantage of not having such a high value striker is essentially your budget can stretch a lot further and allow you to have a much more balanced well rounded team.

By not owning Kane you could do a reverse differential as his ownership amongst players will be huge probably in excess of 50%.

The obviously noticeable thing to is he is going to be as expensive as fuck, like a Pint of Moretti at an airport bar expensive. Were talking a probable starting amount of 13M and as the stats illustrate above their are arguably better value for money players available. As we said earlier Ownership of Kane will be super high and a lot of managers will have FOMU (fear of missing out ) when it comes to owning him from the start and they don’t want to be the idiots who missed out on the points haul when he's banging the goals in. The stats however verify Kane is a slow starter so along with Spurs risk of losing key players and the dreaded Wembley curse - should we all be as confident in Kane as we are?

So our suggestion - much like not being the first guy to cross when the lights are on red - why not let other people take the risk with this premium priced player and pick an alternative such as Sanchez or Augero, allowing you the means to switch to Kane when he starts to hit form or use your wildcard to do this.

I know what your thinking "this is crazy talk Kane's a dead cert in my team”, we cant blame you for thinking that even as I type this I'm considering if the 4 permanent markers I have been snorting for the last 6 hours are influencing this article. But bold managers prosper in FPL, so if you want a chance of having a game changing differential at the start of the season take a walk on the bold side with us.

Image courtesy of Flikr/hydrogen1

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